Elbows Down

The sun’s out, summer is here, and tensions are high. This can only mean one thing – silly season is upon us.

Contract re-negotiation season, lovingly referred to as “silly season” usually occurs around the summer break each year. During this time, rumours circulate like wildfire as teams try and nail down their rider line up for the next season. Many riders have several year long contracts, meaning only a few seats are movable each season.

Rumours have piled up over the past few weeks- with several riders wanting to escape underperforming teams, managers being sacked, injured riders having to prove themselves as worthy of a seat, and Moto2 riders scrambling for seats that simply don’t exist. Here’s what we know so far:

Honda

It’s safe to say that the past few years have not been Honda’s finest. They currently have 2 riders at home recovering from serious injuries, one held together with bandages, and a fourth sitting at 16th in the championship- it’s hard to not identify a common denominator here. Their star rider is becoming despondent, and it will be interesting to see where the once dominating team of the MotoGP grid find themselves in the next year.

Marc Marquez

Honda and Marc have a special relationship, with the Repsol team seeing him through all 6 premier class championship wins, and a partnership that has lasted since his rookie MotoGP season 10 years ago. It is obvious that Marc wants to stay loyal to Repsol Honda, and has publicly said that he’s trying to make things work, but the performance of the bike and investment from HRC have obviously become points of contention. Marc is pushing to the limit every race weekend, trying to make top 5 positions, and often ending up in the gravel as a result. How far is loyalty going to salvage this relationship? Despite Marc describing recent talks with Honda bosses as positive and constructive, his attitude in the pits and after crashes suggests he is at his limit with Honda’s performance.

But where can he go? Many fans and reporters have hedged their bets on KTM- but with their own seat-shuffle conundrum, this seems unlikely. Bit Beirer said he took it as a compliment, but it is absolutely not happening this season. More importantly, Marc is still tied in on a contract until the end of 2024. The underlying question is whether Marc is willing to break the contract, and pay any fines to leave, or will he hang on until 2024, have 2 more seasons on a subpar bike, but have more options open to him to change factories for 2025? The former doesn’t seem too far-fetched, given Alberto Puig’s explosive statement at Assen- making it very clear that whilst Marc has a contract, “ everyone is free to do what they want in life and Honda don’t want to keep people who are unhappy to be there’”. We’ll just have to wait and see what he and his management decide.

Taka Nakagami

With his contract ending at the end of this season, Taka has a few options for his future. LCR Idemitsu Honda needs a Japanese rider, but with Ai Ogura’s performance in 2022, it may not be Taka’s for the taking anymore. It is hard to place the blame for Taka’s results the past few seasons- Honda is officially regarded as a weak bike now, and he has had a fair bout of bad luck with crashes and injuries- but the bottom line is, he’s not getting the results they need. Neither side has hinted at a potential split, but with Ai Ogura providing strong performance in Moto2, it may be better for Taka to consider another seat, or a ride in Asia Superbikes perhaps.

Alex Rins and Joan Mir

Both of the ex-Suzuki riders have fixed contracts in 2024, so won’t be going anywhere this year. However, with them both nursing serious injuries, and Joan’s worst season ever, one wonders if they regret their decision.

Ai Ogura

If there is a replacement for Taka Nakagami, it will most likely be Ai Ogura. An intense championship battle with Augusto Fernandez in 2022 proved that he has the skill and talent for a MotoGP ride. He has had a rough start to 2023, nursing and wrist injury sustained preseason, and a few races with simply bad luck, but his 2022 performances are evidence of the talent he has. He’s charismatic, he’s a good rider, and he’s Japanese- Honda Asia are definitely regarding Ai as their future. Whether Ai would want to enter his rookie year on a Honda bike is another question…

Yamaha

With only 2 bikes on the grid, Yamaha must ensure their line up is strong enough to justify their continuation of a MotoGP project.

Franco Morbidelli

“Do I want to stay at Yamaha?”. These were the words spoken by a rather icey Franky after Mugello last week. His performances since joining Yamaha have left much to be desired, and it seems that Franky is ready for a change. As an Italian, and a VR46 academy alumni, it would be assumed that Ducati would be able to find a place for him somewhere. Most likely, the VR64 team- possibly replacing Marco Bezzechi if he can manage a promotion to Gresini or Pramac. Essentially, Franky’s future is dependent on how much Ducati are willing to shuffle around.

Fabio Quartararo

Fabio and Yamaha represent one of the most prominent examples of public disillusionment between a rider and a team. It is no secret how Fabio feels the past 2 seasons have gone, and they need to split soon to avoid some serious issues. Fabio is locked in until 2024, but after splitting with his manager and managing himself, and Yamaha not making the changes that he is begging for, questions about next year are unavoidable. Managing himself also brings concern about how he will direct negotiations and exit clauses. The biggest problem Fabio faces is having nowhere to go. Many fans want to see him at KTM, but it seems most riders on japanese bikes are vying for KTM seats which simply don’t exist. Aprilia is a potential option since Fabio’s riding style could adapt smoothly. However, considering their underwhelming season so far, it seems unlikely that Fabio would be interested in joining them.

KTM

The most sought-after team in the paddock, it seems everyone wants to be on the KTM. serious investment over the 2022 break means they have created one of the only bikes that can compete with Ducati’s dominance. They have some big decision to make over the summer break, with 4 seats to shuffle around.

KTM factory riders, Brad Binder and Jack Miller, are locked in until 2024, and are giving KTM positive headline results, so it is unlikely they will be going anywhere soon. Over at GasGas, Augusto Fernandez’s one year contract could release him at the end of this season, but this seems needlessly ruthless. Despite being a rookie, Augusto is currently outperforming all Honda riders, and 2 Ducati riders in the championship standings. Pol Espargaró is under contract until 2024, but even if there is a possibility of negotiating its termination by 2023, it would also appear to be a harsh decision from KTM management given his recent medical state.

The primary riders vying for KTM seats are Marc Marquez and Pedro Acosta, 2 of the most talented riders in the whole paddock. Pedro especially is a huge thorn in the manufacturer’s side. As part of his agreement with Aki Ajo’s team, KTM has him under contract in either class for 5 years. Theoretically, this means that if thee is no seat available with MotoGP KTM, Pedro has to stay in Moto2 until one arises. Understandably, Pedro has declined the offer, issuing the team an ultimatum to secure a MotoGP seat by June 30th or he will pursue opportunities elsewhere. If the rumours are to be believed, Pedro has received offers from every manufacturer in the premier class, but has said himself, he would like to repay KTM and will remain loyal where possible. We will have to wait a few more days to figure out what the final decision is.

KTM is rumoured to be considering a potential solution involving introducing two additional KTM bikes to the grid, solving the Acosta issue and increasing their dominance against Ducati. Dorna has reportedly rejected the idea of allowing another satellite team, making it clear that any new team should be a factory team to fill the void left by Suzuki’s departure last year. Nevertheless, KTM could potentially bypass this restriction by establishing a team under their subsidiary, Husqvarna, similar to their recent collaboration with GasGas. Although this possibility may seem unlikely, the rumour has been circulating for a considerable period without any denial from the factory.

Ducati

With 8 bikes on the grid, there is bound to be some movement in the Ducati garages this summer.

The factory team seems pretty set, with Enea Bastianini and Pecco Bagnaia holding contracts until 2024. The satellite teams of Gresini, VR46 and Pramac are where there might be some movement.

Mooney VR64

Both Luca Marini and Marco Bezzecchi have contracts expiring this season. The pair have had amazing results for an independent team, perhaps an indictment of how well Ducati treats their customers. It is unlikely that we will ever see Marini leave, given his family ties to the team. Marco Bezzechi has no reason to leave, as riding a non-factory bike is clearly not impeding his results at all. Although, it seems highly probable that he could move to factory Ducati in a few years time, especially if his good friend Pecco is staying for the long haul.

Celestino Vietti

Despite having an underwhelming start to the 2023 season, it is expected that Vietti will move up to Mooney VR46 one day. It may not be for 2024, but there is always the option for Bezzechi to stay put for another year, and Vieti replace his seat in 2025, if Bez can secure that converted Ducati factory seat. No matter what happens, the VR46 academy sticks together, and he will not be forgotten.

Gresini

Like VR46, both Gresini riders only have contracts until the end of this year. Alex Marquez might not be fighting for the championship., but is getting consistently good results on the Gresini Ducati. He seems to get on with everyone at the team very well, and there have been no rumours about him moving anywhere. Fabio Di Giannantonio, on the other hand, looks like he might be making the move to the world superbike paddock next year. It is no secret that Diggia hasn’t loved his spell in the premier class, last year releasing a candid statement on instagram about how he wasn’t “having fun” in the paddock. World superbikes could be a positive move for the Italian, with a slightly less gruelling schedule, and reduced pressure.

Tony Arbolino

The loss of Di Giannantonio would of course free up a highly converted Ducati seat. Whilst this could go to an existing MotoGP rider- Franky Morbidelli perhaps- there has been mutterings of Moto2 rider, Tony Arbolino, taking the ride. Despite the fanfare around Pedro Acosta, Tony Arbolino is actually beating him in the championship, proving himself to be worthy of a promotion. Being Italian only furthers his case.

Prima Pramac

Both Prima Pramac riders are seemingly set until 2024, but that doesn’t stop the rumours floating. At 32, Johann Zarco could be beginning to think about retirement, perhaps slowing down into a test rider position. He has really proved himself at Ducati, getting consistent results and regularly battling for podium positions. Although, it is hard to forget that he has never won a Grand Prix victory- does Pramac really have the space to keep him on? Either way, the Frenchman is set for another season.

Jorge Martin is where possible contention may lie. Whilst he does have a set ride until 2024 with Pramac, there is a stipulation in his contract that would allow him to move to a different factory if he receives an offer. Jorge and Yamaha have fielded ongoing speculation for a few years now, and with the possibility of Franky leaving, it would leave a space available for the Spaniard. Martin is in a difficult position- he is a genuine championship contender on the Pramac, but conversely, still feels snubbed by Ducati for not getting the factory seat last season. It leaves him in an interesting dilemma.

Aprilia

All 4 Aprilia riders are locked in until 2024, but that doesn’t mean they have avoided speculation. Aleix is not going anywhere next year, but has implied he will be retiring at the end of 2024. If true, this would leave a factory seat open- possibly for Fabio Quartararo.

Maverick Viñales

Never one for a smooth relationship, maverick hasn’t gelled with Aprilia as well as many expected. A string of DNFs and only 1 podium this season leaves a question over his future with the manufacturer. He is safe until the end of next year, when hopefully the bike and rider will be more in sync

RNF Cryptodata

Again, both RNF riders are fixed until 2024, but it looks like both seats could be up for grabs for 2025. Both Raul Fernandez and Miguel Oliveira have left much to be desired, although the extent that they are personally responsible for that is up for debate.

Moto2

Despite there being a mere handful of potential seats available for next season, there seems to be a fair few Moto2 riders up for possible promotion. Pedro Acosta is as good as confirmed for a move up, the only debate is whose leathers he will be wearing. Tony Arbolino also seems fairly likely, being the current championship leader.

Jake Dixon is rumoured to be in talks with a few MotoGP teams, proving his consistency so far this season. He already has experience on 1000cc bikes from his British Superbike days, so it shouldn’t take him long to adapt to MotoGP bikes as a rookie, making him quite desirable to teams. Right now, the top of the list seems to be Yamaha, but it is of course very early days in terms of discussions. His first victory in Assen will only aid Jake’s case.

Finally, it seems that Sam Lowes might be hanging up his Moto2 leathers for a shot in the world Superbike paddock. Given his age and the vast amounts of young talent that are working their way up, it seems unlikely that Sam will ever get a MotoGP seat, so is understandably looking elsewhere. With a young family, it seems like a sensible move, with around half the number of race weekends allowing him to spend more time at home. Apparently Marc VDS are looking to launch a WSBK team, and whilst we don’t have much information on that, it would make sense for Sam to make the move for their debut season and become the poster child for the venture.

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Of course, this whole article is merely a collection of rumours, offhand comments, and interview quotes compiled together, but it gives an overall look at where everyone’s head may be at. We will not know anything is confirmed until press releases make things official. As we have learnt in the past, even statements from riders and their managers can’t be held at 100% truth. Things should become clearer over the coming weeks of the summer break.